President BAT's first month...

Plus a look at our recent history

This week will make a month since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office as the 16^th President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (POFRON).

An eventful month, not surprisingly:

Appointments/Un-Appointments:

Appointed: A new Chief of Staff (COS), immediate-past Speaker of the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila, new Deputy Chief of Staff, Ibrahim Hassan Hadejia (former Senator and former Deputy Governor of Jigawa State), and new Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), immediate-past Minister of Special Duties, former two-term Governor of Benue State, and former Senator, George Akume.

Also appointed: 9 new Special Advisers (SpAds) (including four women), a new National Security Adviser (NSA), an Acting CBN Governor, Acting EFCC Chairman, Acting Service Chiefs, and Acting Police and Customs Chiefs. (The Security chiefs will all require Senate confirmation, hence the Acting status, while the CBN and EFCC bosses are acting because the substantive holders of the offices are on suspension).  

Also, two new Senior Special Assistant (SSA) on National Assembly Matters – one for the Senate and one for the House of Representatives. (The President, Vice President, First Lady, COS, DCOS, SGF, are all former members of the National Assembly, by the way).

Detentions:

The suspended CBN and EFCC Chiefs are in the custody of the DSS, being investigated for various allegations.

Will there be more detentions?

Dissolutions:

All Boards of Boards of Federal Government Parastatals, Agencies, Institutions and Government-owned Companies (with certain statutory exceptions) have been dissolved.

Ambassadors will eventually be recalled.

There will be plenty of changes of heads of parastatals and agencies.

Policies:

Petrol subsidy, gone.

Multiple official exchange rate regime, gone. The black market remains, and it remains to be seen what kind of relationship will exist between it and the new single official market regime.

Three Bills that were passed by the 9^th National Assembly in May 2023 have been assented to by President Tinubu in his first month:

1.   Constitution Alteration Bill No 20, which provides for a uniform retirement age (and pension rights) for Judicial Officers in Nigeria

2.   Electricity Sector Reforms (repealing and replacing the Electricity & Power Sector Reform Act of 2005)

3.   Student Loans (repealing and replacing the Nigerian Education Bank Act of 1993).

There was also the announcement of a Presidential directive for the “return” of the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and the National Hajj Commission of Nigeria (NAHCON) to “supervision” by the Office of the Vice President, “in compliance with their various establishment Acts.”

A Democracy of Governors:

I have previously noted Nigeria’s democracy, nascent as it might be, is already clearly a democracy of Governors. Of the 10 Presidents and Vice Presidents we have had since 1999 —Jonathan recurring, as VP and President—seven have been previously elected Governors—Presidents Yar’Adua, Jonathan and Tinubu, and Vice Presidents Atiku, Jonathan, Sambo and Shettima. Eight, if you add the military Governorship of President Buhari in the 1970s.

Lists, Lists, Lists:

We are now entering the phase where Ministerial Lists will start circulating, most of them full of fakery. You haven’t ‘arrived’ as a political actor in Nigeria if your name doesn’t show up on one or more of these fake lists.

Eventually a list of Ministers will go to the National Assembly. Following a constitutional amendment assented to by former President Buhari in March, the new President now has 60 days, i.e. until the end of July, to name his Cabinet.

The Constitution also mandates that “the President shall appoint at least one Minister from each State, who shall be an indigene of such State.” So that’s a minimum of 36 Federal Ministers. It’ll be interesting to see how many additional Ministers President Tinubu appoints, on top of this constitutional minimum, and also what Ministerial restructurings accompany his new Cabinet.

(For example, in his first term, President Buhari merged the Ministries of Power and Works & Housing—reversed in second term; and in his second term created a new Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development).

National Assembly:

The National Assembly has now gone on recess, following its inauguration on June 13, and the election of Senate President, Deputy Senate President, Speaker and Deputy Speaker, and will resume on July 4. The Recess is to allow them settle down: allocation of seats, offices, etc.

When they resume, they will be expected to unveil their own ‘cabinet’ equivalents – the Chairpersons of dozens of Committees, some juicier than others. (Yes, these Committees are ranked in terms of juiciness, you can’t seriously compare a Committee on Appropriation, or Banking & Finance, or Niger Delta / NDDC with a Committee on Labour & Employment, can you?)

Also importantly, there will be elections to fill the remaining Principal positions in the two Chambers (for the Senate: Senate Leader, Deputy Senate Leader, Chief Whip and Deputy Whip), and also the Minority Leader and Deputy Minority Leader positions.

And the one the entire country will be paying the most attention to: Televised Screenings for the new Cabinet.

First Presidential Foreign Trip:

President Tinubu has made his first foreign trip, to France, for a Global Financing Summit organized by President Macron. He met with the Presidents of the Swiss Confederation, Republic of Benin, AfreximBank, AfDB, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development; the Chairman of Indorama; and a cross-section of Nigerians in the diaspora.

Presidents’ first foreign trips (since 1999):

Obasanjo: June 15, 1999, South Africa, President Thabo Mbeki Inauguration.

Yar'Adua: June 6, 2007, Germany, G8 Summit

Jonathan (as Acting President): April 11, 2010, Nuclear Security Summit, USA

Buhari: June 3, 2015, Official Visits to Niger and Chad, to forge increased regional cooperation in the fight against Boko Haram

Tinubu: June 20, 2023, France, Global Financing Summit

When new Presidents changed the Service Chiefs they inherited:

Obasanjo: May 29, 1999 (Day 1)

Yar'Adua: August 20, 2008 (he kept OBJ's appointees for over a year)

Jonathan: Sept 8, 2010 (he kept Yar'Adua's appointees for 4 months)

Buhari: July 13, 2015 (he kept GEJ's appointees for 1.5 months)

Tinubu: June 19, 2023 (he kept PMB's appointees for 3 weeks)

Highlights of Presidents’ first weeks (since 1999):

Obasanjo: Began, barely a week after assuming office, a purge of the military, compulsorily retiring dozens of Officers who were deemed to have been politically exposed (i.e. held political appointments) during the military era), and therefore a threat to the country’s fledgling democracy. Also announced seizures of hundreds of millions of dollars in assets and cash held by family and associates of the late General Sani Abacha, Head of State from 1993 until his sudden death in 1998.

Yar’Adua: Following labour strikes that crippled the country, reversed a number of major last-minute decisions by Obasanjo, including the doubling of VAT to 10% and a N10 increase in prices of petrol, kerosene and diesel. But he also retained Obasanjo’s Chief of Staff (for more than a year, before scrapping that office) and National Security Adviser (for almost three years).

Jonathan: Acting President from February 9 to May 6, 2010; and substantive President from May 6. On March 16, 2010, five weeks after becoming Acting President, he dissolved the Cabinet he inherited, and assembled a new one in April.

Buhari: Announced, in his Inaugural Address on May 29, that the Nigerian military would move its “Command and Control Centre” from Abuja to Maiduguri “until Boko Haram is completely subdued.” He also ordered the release of $21 million to the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), as part of the redemption of a $100 million pledge by Nigeria to the Military Force, staffed by troops from Nigeria, Benin, Chad, Cameroon and Niger.