The Tinubu Doctrine

Notes from a chat with the new Foreign Minister, on Nigeria's 4Ds of Diplomacy

I’m very much interested in the idea of Nigeria’s foreign policy—what exactly is it and how has it been evolving to keep up with ever-changing regional, continental and global realities?

The new Honorable Minister of Foreign Affairs (HMFA), H.E. Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, recently announced that the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration will be guided by a ‘4D’ foreign policy model, to be known as ‘The Tinubu Doctrine’.

I got a chance to sit with the Minister for a brief chat in New Delhi, India, recently, on the sidelines of the G20 Summit. (Thanks HMFA for the time!)

He reminded me that Nigeria’s foreign policy aspirations are enshrined in the 1999 Constitution (See Chapter 2, Section 19).

What the Tinubu Doctrine seeks to do is build within and upon the framework of this constitutional outline:

The 4Ds are outlined below (Note that I have reconstructed the Minister’s points from the notes I made during my conversation with him, so the ‘HMFA’s View’ below should not be regarded as exact quotes. I have also followed with my own perspectives and analysis on what he shared):

1D—DEMOCRACY:

HMFA’s View:

Nigeria is Africa’s largest democracy, and we need to project ourselves to the world as champions of democracy, not just at home but abroad as well, and intervene decisively where necessary to halt the emerging “domino effect” of coup d’états in the region.

According to HM Tuggar, this pillar also means highlighting our efforts at restoring peace and stability to countries like Sierra Leone and Liberia a generation ago, at a time when superpowers like the USA were struggling in Somalia and other places.

In summary, Nigeria has to fully play its role as a “proactive democracy” that helps to guarantee the peace, security and stability of West Africa and Africa.

Tolu’s Comment:

Nigeria as a country needs to do a lot more storytelling about our various interventions in support of freedom and democracy across Africa, over the last almost-seven decades. Especially for the benefit of younger generations, and even for the benefit of those countries that have benefited from our interventions.

In The Gambia, President Adama Barrow would not be President today without the active intervention of the Nigerian military and the Nigerian judiciary. This happened barely six years ago, but I doubt most Nigerians are aware of what exactly went down during those tense weeks.

We need to do better as a nation with telling our stories and projecting our past and ongoing influence and clout!

2D—DEMOGRAPHY:

HMFA’s View:

By 2050, Nigeria is projected to be the 3^rd most populous country in the world, after India and China. We must accept the fact that we are a large country (by population), and position ourselves alongside other populous countries like China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Russia, Bangladesh, USA, etc.

This pillar is what will drive our push for membership of groupings like the G20—as Africa’s largest economy and most populous country (and one of the most populous countries in the world!), there is no reason why Nigeria should not be in the G20.

Tolu’s Comment:

Much has been said and written about how Nigeria stands at the crossroads of either a “Demographic Dividend” or a “Demographic Bomb”. Which shall it be, positive rewards, or a detonation that will reverberate well beyond our shores. It’s up to us. We must seek to maximise every advantage of size, while working to minimize every disadvantage.

3D—DIASPORA:

HMFA’s View:

A country’s diaspora is a primary transmission mechanism for the global reputation of that country. A cynical diaspora will constantly transmit negative perceptions; an engaged and well-served diaspora can be a powerful tool for national branding. If you work hard to engage with and make your diaspora happy, you will reap immense national-branding benefits.

It is therefore important to work on changing the perceptions of the Nigerian diaspora about Nigeria—and, according to the Minister, one of the best ways to do this is to transform the quality of services they receive from the Nigerian government: passport application, consular services, etc.

Nigeria also needs to be more strategic in viewing its diaspora as ‘ambassadors’ of Nigerian potential, and look for ways to tap into this rich mine of soft power. Imagine for instance a Nigerian diaspora that champions Nigerian interests the way the Israeli diaspora does Israeli interests?

HMFA Tuggar also argues that Nigeria must come to terms with the reality that we are exporters of labour, and then work to create policies and conditions that guarantee that we derive benefits from this labour export, that accord with our national interests. So, instead of being stuck in lamentation mood about brain drain, how can we be more strategic about this inevitable export of labour, in the manner of countries like the Philippines.

Expect, as part of this pillar, reforms to the 36-year-old Technical Aid Corps programme—which is in my view one of Nigeria’s most undervalued and under-sold soft-power assets, a scheme said to have been modeled on America’s Peace Corps. In the last eight years alone, we have deployed more than 2,500 TAC Volunteers to several African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries. All expenses borne by Nigeria.

Tolu’s Comment:

The summary of this is that we must figure out a way to make ‘Japa’ work for us as a country. I’m sure there are are people who would like to twist and mis-interpet this, and mischievously cast it as official nonchalance about the Japa issue.

But no, that’s not what this means. It does not preclude the essential work required to make Nigeria more conducive for living and thriving in. It only seeks to ensure that, even while that is being done, on top of it, we must accept the reality of emigration, and make it work for us as a country: think remittances, think acquisition of talent, think diaspora investment, etc.

On this point about delivering better services to Nigerians in the diaspora, it’s pleasing to note that the new Interior Minister has put passport reforms at the top of his to-do list. Many of my conversations with Nigerians in the diaspora are indeed around passport renewal.

There’s a lot of reputational gain to be gotten from making Nigerian passport applications a seamless process at home and abroad.

The Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NiDCOM), established by President Buhari in 2019, has been very active in engaging with and serving Nigerians in Diaspora, supporting and working with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

NiDCOM has in recent years launched a National Diaspora Policy, and is working on the establishment of a Nigerian Diaspora Investment Trust Fund (NDITF). In 2019, the Federal Government of Nigeria set aside July 25 of every year as National Diaspora Day.

4D—DEVELOPMENT:

HMFA’s View:

This is foreign policy as a tool for attracting and driving investment into Nigerian infrastructure, and development generally, through the right partnerships and collaborations. Essentially, this Pillar will focus on partnerships with a wide range of stakeholders (local, international, government, private sector), to achieve the overall goal of “sustainable socio-economic development.”

Tolu’s Comment:

Nigeria needs all the investment it can lay its hands on, domestic and foreign. On the foreign front, we have always pursued a non-aligned policy—meaning we do not take ideological sides, we will work with whichever country is willing to work with us.

In recent years we have sealed some really big Government-to-Government (G2G) deals with countries like Germany (Power), Morocco (Fertilizer), USA (Defence), China (Rail, Telecoms and Defence), Russia (Defence).

I think it’s possible to see this Development pillar as the one that underlines all the others. Since, at the end of the day, ‘Development’ is what Governments seek to achieve with everything that they do, be it Policy, Doctrine, Legislation, etc. Development is the light at the end of the tunnel, that glorious, successful ‘End’ that we all dream of.

CLOSING

According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the aim of the Tinubu Doctrine “is to reinforce Nigeria’s position as a leader in Africa, enhance its influence globally, maximise opportunities through strategic autonomy, drive major multilateral reforms, and foster improved national security, trade, and investment.”